March 9, lOiG. 
LAND AND WATER 
necessity at this stage — of frequent official pronounce- 
ments. The Government had possession of these liguix's. 
\V}iy on earth did they allow the C.ernian lie to go un- 
contradicted ? 
A correspondent has sent me a typical piece of enemy 
propaganda in the shape of a piece of rubbish published 
in a Swedish paper, which appears in Gerrnan interests. 
This nonsense is curiously like the sort of thing that 
has been scattered broadcast by the same agency in 
America, and it confirms one's judgment upon the nature 
of this propaganda m neutral countries, which has bcttn 
remarked on repeatedly in L.WD .■xnd W.\tek. 
It gives the J^ritish casualties, aj)art from sickness, 
at over a million (!) The casualties of the other Allies 
are given with a little less e.vaggeration. Characteristi- 
cally enough it is more accurate about the Russian 
casualties than about any other because, presumably, 
it is supposed that the Swedish public will have a better 
chance of judging. But the linglish figures are enough 
to test such stuff. 
GERMAN LOSSES.— (Continued). 
FINAL STATEMENT CALCULATED TO THE END OF 1915. 
31 MILLIONS IRREDUCIBLE MINIMUM. 
IN pursuance of the analysis dependent upon in- 
formation, the basis of which my readers already 
know, I will continue and conclude in this week's 
number the calculation of German losses. 
We must remember in this calculation that we are 
only concerned with a minimum. We are estimating 
a number below which such losses cannot fall. 
The groundwork of the whole calcuiati on is the 
number of dead. 
We arrived, in the first part of this study, published 
two weeks ago, at a clear and conclusive minimum with 
regard to the number of German dead \\\> to the last day 
of 1915. We have conclusive proof that this number is 
not less than one million. 
Our problem, therefore, is to establish the very least 
number of men " off the strength " of a force in this war 
at a moment when the deaths alone in that force amount 
to one million. 
The readers of this paper are familiar wnth the fact 
that such an estimate involves two ciuite separate ele- 
ments : 
(i) We have first of all to establish the number of 
men who can never return to full active service because 
they are either dead or prisoners, or rendered by wounds 
or by sickness permanently unfit for the firing line.' 
(2) When we have established this chief element 
we have to add to it yet another, to wit, what has been 
called here " The permanent margin of temporary losses "; 
That is, the number of men in hospital who will return 
to the army, but are for the moment off the strength. 
So much being postulated let us begin with the 
estimate of permanent losses up to the end of the vear 
1915- 
L — Permanent Losses. 
Permanent losses are made up of four categories 
which, between them, cover the whole ground : — 
[a) The dead. 
[b) The prisoner.^. 
[c) The " disabled wounded," that is, the woun- 
ded who can never return usefully to the 
fighting line. 
((/) The " disabled sick," that is, those who, 
similarly disabled by sickness contracted 
in service, cannot retiu'n usefully to the 
fighting fine. 
[a) The Number of Dead. 
This we already have, and it is the basis of our 
calculation. It is a minimum of one million up to 
December 31st, 1015. We kno\y that even the official 
lists come within 19 per cent, of that truth, and we have 
noted the conclusi\e arguments which make the full 
number certainly more than 19 per cent, atiove the 
official lists. We shall in amon^ent see how this basic 
(i) As an example of liow it iriay be more' and cannot be less, we 
may take the proportion of deaths from disease. The proportion of 
such deaths admitted in the German lists is less than 3 p.-r cent, of 
the total deaths. Even allowing, as we have, for the iinpi irfection of 
those lists to the extent of one-fifth, this would give for the <leaths from 
disease not so much as 6 per cent, of the total? Yet, on the analogy 
of one large category of troops fighting in Northern !■' ranee 
under conditions less rigorous than some of tltose the Germans 
have had to suffer in the East, and exactly erihivatent to tl lose which 
they have had to siiffor in the VVc.-^t, the rea'l proportion of dc aths from 
disease tc the total deaths turns out to be not '. (lor cent but iu-t 
over g per cent. 
number of one million should be treated in our con- 
sideration of the other categories. 
[h) The Ntimbet oj German Prisoners. 
This is known accurately for the Western front, and 
has, I believe, been communicated for the Eastern front. 
It is the fixed and wise policy of the Allies not to 
inform the enemy with any detail w.th regard to the 
prisoners he has lost. But I may, without indiscretion, 
give a minimum number which will, when the full official 
statistics are available, be discovered to be -mthin the 
truth. A quarter oj a million is no exaggeration, but 
200,000 is far too low a figure. It is a very small 
number when we consider the length of time over 
which the operations of the Germany Army have been 
conducted, and shows with what skill the co-ordination 
of every retirement was arranged. 
(c) The Wounded. 
In this category, we must begin with a gross number 
from which deductions will be made '\u due course, to 
arrive at the nett estimate. 
Our basis of calculation is necessarily here an analogy 
with the known figures of corresponding losses in the other 
forces engaged, coupled with, and modified by, certain 
considerations peculiar to each force engaged. 
Let me begin with the figures most familiar to 
readers in this country, the Colonial and British figures. 
The most carefully analysed British figures publicly 
available are those of Jaimary 28th last, referring to the 
final date, January 9th. 
The total number given for dead in France and 
Flanders (which is the only proper basis of comparison 
because the naval ligures of course, have no relation to 
Land warfare and the Gallipoli figures are abnormally 
swelled by the e.Kceptional death rate from disease, and 
the cramped positions . there held) is 87,268 ; the total 
number of wounded 259,207. This gives to every man 
dead almost exactly 3 men wounded. 
But that figure is, for proportion of the British 
wounded to dead in France and Flanders, too high ; for it 
docs not include as dead any of the missing. 
It will be remembered that when we were finding the 
number of German dead, the deduction of prisoners from 
the total of missing gave us an important additional item.- 
We must try and make a similar item for the British 
lists. Unfortunately, an essential clement in the calcu- 
lation is lacking. We know to within a very close figure 
what number of German prisoners are held by the Allies. 
We do not know to within a similarly close figure, nor 
within a few thousand, what number of British prisoners 
are held by the Germans. Some time ago a rough official 
estimate was made that there were no less than 32,000 
British prisoners in (lermany. But that was a minimum 
figure. The (Germans themselves, not officially, but in 
public prints have, I believe, boasted of far more. At 
any rate, neutrals hav'c been told of more. I believe we 
are exaggerating tlie niunbiT of dead among the missing 
if we put them at 10,000, but let us for the sake of weight- 
ing the scales against ourselves, put them at 12,000. We 
shall then have for the number of wounded to every man 
dead in these last official British figures, just over 2.6. 
To be accurate, 2.61 1 
We will scale this down to 2.6 and start uoon that 
basis 
