lO 
LAND & WATER 
December 7, 1916 
the neutral markets and the domestic populations among 
which they are distributed. But if there is a serious 
difference between the actual number controlled by the 
opposing governments it is another matter. 
Now upon examination we shall see that the first crude 
statement which we ha\e just set down, will not hold. 
In the first place it deals only with the West, and the 
East, though so httle industrialised, is not negligible. 
It may count in industrial power for but a fraction of the 
West, but it more than maintains itself in the general 
life of the State apart from munitionment and equipment, 
and that burden falls heavily upon the enemy. 
Effect of Wastage 
Next we do well to note that nearly thirty millions 
of this supposed superiority in numbers is found in 
Bulgaria and the Turkish Empire, which do not appreci- 
ably add to the industrial jiower of the enemy. What 
we are really dealing with is what lies north of the 
Danube and east of the Vistula. 
But far more important than such considerations, is 
the effect of military wastage. 
The core of all heavy work, the nucleus or skeleton 
of it, the thing upon which it depends, and lacking its 
due proportion of wliich, it fails, is the labour of the adult 
and healthy male — that is of the male of inihtary age 
and commonly fit for service. Stretch abnormal methods 
to their utmost ; organise women for the lighter work, 
and even children in whatever numbers you choose, you 
can never really replace this central mainstay of the 
whole affair, adult and healthy male labour in industry 
which, in times of peace, covers nearly the whole field. 
Now we know the situation of that vital factor generally 
before the enemy as a whole, and very accurately indeed 
in the case of the principal enemy upon whom all the 
rest depend. Of adult, healthy male labour the German 
Empire, counting the lads of eighteen, and up to the 
age of forty-five, has mobiUsed the whole, and in the 
present stage of the war she ha& — 
50 per cent, and a Httle more in the armies ; 
10 per cent, (and a httle more) still in depots ; 
30 per cent, (and a little more) dead or hopelessly 
mutilated. 
These three categories combined come to certainly 
92 per cent, of the mobihsable population, and probably 
to more like 94 per cent. About 6 per cent, have been 
kept back for the necessary work of the nation. They 
fubt kept back as necessary something hke a million and a 
lialf. Last spring they have come to perhaps a milUon ; 
at the opening of the present winter they were 600,000. 
That was the number of men called up and passed for 
service, but exempted for civilian work. It is clear that 
in this indispensable category, the enemy is very near 
his hmits. 
Now how does this state of affairs contrast with that of 
Western AUies ? 
There is simply no comparison. France, which was 
fully mobihsed from the beginning and has fought at 
full power without cessation for over two years, is still 
less exhausted by a whole class at least, that is, by a whole 
year's recruiting, than is the German Emjjire. Italy 
and Great Britain have reserves 'of adult male labour 
out of all proportion to this shred left to Germany. 
Over and above these resources the Western Allies 
have their Colonies for a recruiting field, and in some 
measure lor a labour supply. 
This last and most serious argument, then, can, I 
think, be traversed by anyone who wiU be at the pains 
to consider actual statistics instead of depending upon 
\ague and general impressions. 
We are now in a position to summarise our thesis. 
The superiority of the Allies in recruiting power has 
always been e\ident. It is more evident than ever in 
this the penultimate phase of the war ; but upon the other 
factor necessary to success, equipment and munition- 
ment, less analytical work has been done. 
Eastern Enemy Necessities 
When the present situation of that other factor is 
analysed, however, the analysis is found to reach much 
the same result, with this difference, that the Eastern 
field is and will remain heavily handicapped compared 
with the enemy. 
But the enemy is compelled none the less to devote 
to that Eastern field much the greater part of his mihtary 
man-power, and of his man-power available for munition- 
ment what remains is overwhelmingly surpassed by the 
corresponding industrial powjsr of the W^estern Allies. In 
this field of calculation, therefore, as in the purely 
military field of recruitment, we are led to the con- 
clusions that have governed our judgment throughout 
the war, since the Marne, and there remain as possibly 
adverse no factors save those political or moral ones 
which are not susceptible of calculation. H. Bra.r.oc 
Women Turning Shells 
