i6 
LAND & WATER 
January 25, 1917 
territory would travel in fibsolnte security ; our own 
troop* crossing the open sea would travel under the ever 
imminent risk of submarine attack. In such conditions 
it would be easy for Germany to organise a coup de main 
and capture Egvpt. That "this is not an exaggerated 
hypothesis will be realized bv those who reflect on the 
difficulties which we encountered in the earlier stages of 
the war in repelling a purely Turkish attack on the Suez 
Canal, an attack unaided by rail power. Once in pos- 
session of the Egyptian ports Germany could prevent us 
from landing troops, and her control of the Suez Canal 
would cut the most important link between the British 
Isles and our Eastern and Australasian dominions. 
But having conquered Egypt, why should the Germans 
limit their advance ? One of the most striking of all the 
schemes planned by Cecil Rhodes was the creation of 
the Cape to Cairo "railway. That line is not yet com- 
plete ; but if the Germans had securely established them- 
selves in Cairo there would be little indeed to prevent 
them from filling in the missing links and creating a 
through route from Cairo to the Cape — not for purposes 
of peaceful commerce, \^'e have seen how a South 
African force, with the aid of British sea power, has 
gradually cleared the Germans eut of nearly the whole 
of East Africa. But the Germans in possession of Egypt, 
and in the possession of rail power untouchable from the 
sea, would be able to organise their revenge and to in\-adc 
South Africa with a well-equipped army. 
In exactly the same way, when the German railhead 
reaches Bagdad the Pan-Germans will certainly demand 
that the railway shall be extended through Persia till 
(iermany is able to threaten India with a landward 
attack. German agents have already taken some steps 
towards preparing the ground for this contingency. I 
was myself startled four or fi\-e years ago at the frank 
wa\' in which an Indian lawyer with revolutionary 
tendencies spoke of the possibility of the co-operation of 
Indians with Gei-many. Since the war began the Indian 
Government has been engaged in running to earth a 
number of Indian conspiracies largely financed with 
German money. We may regard the prospect of a 
German conquest of India as too absurd to be worth 
consideration, but we may, be sure that it is not so re- 
garded by the Pan-Germans whose ambitions are only 
limited by the confines of the globe. 
Once established at Bagdad, with through rail com- 
munication except for the narrow gap of the Bosphorus, 
the Germans would speedily be able to get down to the 
Perisan Gulf and to establish there a naval station which 
would greatly imperil our sea route to India via the Cape. 
Our route through the Suez Canafwould already have been 
closed, and probably Aden would ha\e been annexed 
by Germany. A German conquest of India under such 
conditions would not be an impossibility. That con- 
quest completed, the Germans would extend their rail 
power across Burma to China, and there organise a new 
Empire for themselves free from any risk of interference 
from the sea power of Great Britain or Japan. ~ 
These illustrations are sufficient to show the enormous 
possibilities of rail power controlled bj? a military 
despotism in command of the interior geographical lines. 
If Germany retains those interior lines the ultimate 
defeat of British sea power by German rail power is 
inevitable. The conclusion is clear that at any cost we 
must prevent the extension of the German dominions 
across the Bosphorus. 
There is no longer any doubt that the original cause of 
the quarrel which Austria picked with Serbia was the 
determination of Germany to get a right of way to Con- 
stantinople, with a view to securing the Bcrhii-Bagdad 
route. To checkmate this design now and in the future 
it is essential that we should insist on the liberation of 
the southern Slavs from Austrian rule, so that they 
may establish an independent Jugo-Slav kingdom. 
Secondly, we must insist that Constantinople is transferred 
to a Power which \\\\\ ha\-e both the will and the strength 
to oppose Germany's Asiatic ambitions. We have to 
realize that the freedom of the Balkans from German 
control is as vital to the security of the British Empire as 
the freedom of Belgium is to the British Isles. 
A Birth of 111 Omen 
By John Trevena 
William II., ninth King of Prussia, third German 
Emperor, was born in Berlin on January 2ylh, 1859. 
A MILDER January no one could remember. 
Indeed during the entire winter of 1858-59 hunt- 
ing went on unchecked by frost. The New 
Year smiled upon a nation well-employed and 
prosperous in spite of the late commercial crisis. Our 
parents, or may be, we ourselves, were being taken to the 
pantomime of Robin Hood at Drury Lane, or to hear 
Mr. Balfe's new opera, " Satanella," at Covent Garden ; 
when the joys of the Christmas holidays became heightened 
by news from Prussia, " The accouchement of the Princess 
Frederick William is daily expected." 
Some few of us may remember how our grandparents 
rejoiced at the assurance that English doctors and nurses 
had set out for Berlin by royal command, because 
Prussia was the sole country of Europe regarded with 
affection by London opinion ; and the birth of a prince, 
or princess, to Queen Victoria's eldest daughter must 
assuredly bring the two peoples yet more closely to- 
gether. Heaven send a prince, said whiskered merchants 
and traders, as they jolted towards their counting- 
hoases upon the knife-board, frowning beneath enormous 
beavers at the daily-increasing crowd and pressure 
upon London Bridge. ' ' An England-loving Prince of peace 
, . . King of Prussia some day . . . perhaps dur- 
ing the century ahead old England may need an ally.' ' 
In those days the towns of En^and were permeated 
with German thought and customs : volksmurchen were 
told by every British fireside ; the music of the father- 
land sounded from every piano ; the popular Mr. Dickens 
had undoubtedly served the public and himself uncom- 
monly well bjf preaching the German Christmas ; a 
favourite hero of romance was the young Prussian officer, 
although a few critics objected in a mild and brQtherlv 
fashion to the ever-increasing supplies demanded by the 
Prince Regent of Prussia, "for the maintenance of the 
royal dignity, for augmenting the army forces, and for 
the support" of the navy." But even Sourfacc drew 
no serious comparison between these warlike prepara- 
tions, and the restless military despotism practised 
by the Third Napoleon. John Bull looked out upon the 
Continent, seeing little except darkness, with figures 
masked and cloaked moving through it. robbing and 
murdering each other; and he was terribly anxious to 
disassociate himself from such brigands. He had long 
searched for a gleam of sunlight from the States of 
Europe ; and it came in the form of an announcement : 
The Princess Frederick Willi ant n'as safely delivered 
of a Prince shortly after ^ p.m. on Thursday afternoon. 
That set the joy bells ringing ! City Fathers in pomp 
set forth to Buckingham Palace to congratulate the 
young grandmother and her Consort. The Count 
Bcrnstorff of that day, Prussian Minister to the Court 
of St. James, gave a grand dinner at which three mem- 
bers of the British Royal Family were present, in cele- 
bration of this happy event. By special command of 
Her Majesty, the tenantry on the Highland estates 
were summoned to an entertainment and ball at Balmoral 
Castle. Great Britain and Prussia were united in a 
fervent hope this child might live to reign. 
A bright-faced boy, travelling as Baron Renfrew, was 
informed in Rome— ^where to the indignation of Exeter 
Hall he visited the Sovereign Pontiff, and went through 
St. Peter's with his hat off— of his nephew's birth. This 
young Baron had been born during a time of profound 
peace, therefore it was not inappropriate he should be 
known in advanced life as a peacemaking King. The 
babe of Berlin opened his eyes upon the eve of five 
great struggles: the war between Franrc and Austria, 
