LAND & WATER 
January 17, 1918 
The New State in Europe 
By Hilaire Belloc 
THERE has arisen during the past year a great New- 
State in Europe. It aheady exists, in practice. 
If the enemy's armies remain undefeated it will 
soon be d«4ined in public law and- will be apparent 
.0 all. It may be called the State of Central Europe. 
It is essentially federate in nature, though parts of the 
federation are subjects rather than partners. It is composed, 
therefore, of distinct communities, some of which liave long 
h<vn, othei-s of which may soon be, distinct nations. These 
will 'pos.scss, no doubt, autonomous institutions and c\en 
local dynasties. None the less this Xew State is one. It is 
tin- creation of one Power which makcs.it possible (now tiiat 
Russia has gone) and which is the cchtiv^and principle of 
unity of the whol ^ 
"i'he New State tints created before our cjes is tiic work 
of Prussia. 
Its centre and principal of unity is .Prussia. .'Its capital is 
Berlin. -'It- is vast. It extends frorn somewhat west of the 
Rhine to far east of the Vistula ; froiu the Baltic to the Alps 
and the Balkaiis. It has for direct (lepiendents (or members) 
the Slavonic and other eonununities lying for lumdreds of 
miles to..the east of the (jermans. It has for indirect dependents 
or mem'tiers, almost equally bound "to it. the Bulgarians and 
the Turks. It is already upon the Adriatic. If it is main- 
tained it will control the eastern shores of the North Sea, 
nearly all the littoral of the Black Sea, the northern shores of 
thc^jCgcan and the whole of the Baltic. Through it will be 
e.xploited the undeveloped wealth of the Russian Plains, of 
Syria and of Mesopotamia. It will be the dominant factor in 
the politics and in the economic structure of the old world. 
Upon whether this New State thus remains strong, organised^ 
informed by Prussia as its principle of unity, and really 
existent among us depends the future of Western civilisation. 
Ill particular there depends upon this issue the fate of these 
ishi' 1 of their system overseas. 
i j live far fjom Europe and are necessarily un- 
famiiiai )\ah our problems maybe excused from grasping what 
has happened. It is a very recent experience. The Nevv 
State was an impossibility so long a.s the Russian autocracy 
still stood ; and from the first signs of that autocracy's catas- 
trophe to the present moment is less than a year. No wonder 
that observers outside Europe are still blind to it, and still 
talk in terms of 1914. What i3 more remarkable is that the 
politicians of Western Europe ha\e not yet (apparently) 
grasped its existence. None the less it is there, and on its 
continuance or dissolution depend all our coming years. It 
has become the supreme issue of tlxe war. 
Prussia's Ideal 
Prussia, the confederation she had orgii^scd upon hei own 
model (called, since 1871, the " fierman Empire,") and men 
of German speech in sympathy with that model to the south, 
in the .Austrian mark, envisaged the creation of such a Central 
State when war was suddenly forced K^on Europe in 1914. 
They had long envisaged it. " They did not perhaps imagine 
how socwi their ideal would be realised. It is realised to-da\-. 
It is before us now for all to observe, and if it is confirmed by a 
peace which leaves Prussia undefeated, all that for which the 
Western nations have fought, including their own dignity, 
security and power is at an end. 
I propose in this and the following articles to describe the 
extent and nature of this New Central State ; its composition 
in geographical limits, language and religion ; its economic 
potential ; what are its possible weaknesses, and what are 
certainly its present elements of strength. I shall attempt this 
description without reference to the moral ideas supporting 
us in the great struggle, without denunciation of the tvranny 
or falsehood or bad faith on the part of Prussia which were 
necessary to the success of this her plan. 
To make • the necessity of victoi v unquestionable, it 
should be suificient for the peril to be understood. And to 
understand a thing it is enough merely to analvse the nature 
of the thing and to present it— just as one mav analy.se and 
]>resent the nature of a strategical situation threatening 
defeat, without proceeding to dilate upon the horrorsof defeat ; 
or just as it is p-^^ssiblc to analyse witJi 'detachment and to 
describe the action of a poison without-wasting words upon the 
agony it will cause, or the fear of dedth which it promises. 
The matter we ha\-c to examine is' soimthing now really 
existent. Our first duty is t<. recognise it and to umler^tand it. 
That done it will be clear enough that cfther it survives and 
we go under, or that we dissolve it and p|-eser\ e our civilisation. 
We must hrst sec the tiling clearly and know that it is tliere. 
Then and then only can we- deal with it. 1?o continue the 
repetition of .abstract formula: . upon nationjfil' rights, self- 
government, and the rest is as futile in the presence -of such a 
phenomenon ' as woitJd be a panegyric upon quiet living 
when a dam had already broken in the hills above us and the 
flood wa,s approaching our houses. T^ussia has broken and 
the Central State is consequently upon us. Like all other 
historical phenomena its appreciation by those whom it 
threatens must come somewhat tardily and may come too 
late. Hence the advantage of studying it in time and of 
appreciating, as soon as possible after its first appearance, that 
it lias come. 
Though this great new State now in pr'ocess of erection 
under the direction of Prussia will be described in detail and 
its real existence at this moment taken for granted in these 
articles, this does not mean for a moment that the writer 
l)resumes its successfid continuance. Such a presumption 
would be 'a presumption of defeat ; and the superiority of 
\\'estern civilisation over the Gcrmanies is such that the 
balance is in favour of victory, no matter how numerous the 
new resources which the enemy successively discover, if only 
■\\e avoid a jiremature surrender. 
If the military machine of Prussia bo put out of action the 
whole structure Of this great new Central State automatically 
collapses, and its place will be taken by numerous independent 
nations acting upon the normal European model which 
ensures diversity and therefore freedom and life. But the 
point to grasp is that the Hiing of which we speak is already 
in being and that its maintenance and dissolution— though 
that dissolution may arrive at any momejit, though the life 
of the thing spoken of may therefore i)rovc in history exceed- 
ingly brief — has become- the prime matter of the war".'' It will 
be maintained if we make peace with an undefejatcd Germany. 
If wc wear Germany down it wHI -be dissolved. 
Western Boundaries 
Let us iirst of all grasp what the complex ol Central Europe 
is. On its Western side Central Europe copsists u holly of that 
nationally German belt which, whether' witMn the" modern 
(ierman Empire or exterior to it in the .Austrian marlv, is now 
for 'international purposes jiolitically one. V\'e must take 
for our Western limit, therefore, the undisputed boundary 
which marks upon the West the German peoples jiroperly 
so called, that is, the German-speaking population attaehcd 
to the German ' nationality and now supporting the suecesses 
of the Prussianised German Empire. That is the best definition 
of the " (ierman Beit:" Tlie German language' \s ii6i an 
exact test, for it has many forms,' fades into L'risidn and Dutch 
in one sector,- is mixcJd with Slavonic additions in another. It 
is spoken — in certain dialects — by men who have no political 
attachment tti German nationality, whether because thev are 
by tradition opposed to. it — as are the \ illages of .Msace — 
or M-hether because (like "the Swiss-German cantons) while 
in sympathy with the race they prefer .political independence. 
The Western frontier of the Central Jiuropean State is, 
tlieii,the western limit of true German nationalit\-. 
Such a western frontier is easily determined, it follows the 
Rhine from its issue out of Switzerland for a distance of about 
100 miles to near Karlsruhe. It runs thence a little east of 
north to the valley of the Saar, strikes the Moselle at the 
])resent frontiei" of Luxembourg and is thencc'almost exactly 
coterminous with the political frontier of the modern German 
Empire until that frontier reaches the North Sea. 
.Attempts to colonise by force and policy beyond this mark 
can be debated, s6 can vague sympathies of race outsjdc it, 
so can districts within this mark which, until quite modern 
times, had]no strong German leanings, but rather looked towards 
the Netherlands or other local patriotisms. But the line thus 
established is nearer to an exact politic frontier than perhaps 
anv-thing else in Continental Europe. 
l'poitt,he east no such definite boundariy- can be established. 
There we -deal -with tliose vast flat districts„.oftcn, a.'waste of 
marsh and forest, nepirly always debatable in his.toiy between 
various races, speeches and religions, which might' be some- 
what rhetorically (but none the less accurately) described 
as the Marches of Muscovy. W'e must, at anv fate, include 
for our purpose all the Valley of the Vistula/ all theBaHfc 
seaboard up to the Gulf of Finland; the 'Marshes of tlic 
PHpct ; all the basin of the Danube, the Dw-ister, and the 
Meniel, and the lower course of the .D.viiia. A very rough 
mark is longtitude JO East of Greenwieli. 
Between these two boundaries, minute and detailed upon 
the west, exceedingly \-ague upon the cast, lies this great bodv 
