March 28, 1 9 i 8 
Land & Water 
13 
redraft the Admiralty curves. I have supplemented that 
illustrating British tonnage losses (2) by another (i) showing 
the monthly shipping losses. And I have varied the monthly 
British replacement curve (3) by branching off at the month 
•of October with, first, a new curve showing the monthly 
rate of replacement — which is the curve (3 B). Secondly, 
as a contrast to the Admiralty's curve for the last quarter 
of last year — marked (3 A) in my diagram — I have added a 
new quarterly curve (3 C) for the three months December, 
January, and Februarv. This curve shows that the chance 
selection of the three months October, November, and 
December give, as a matter of fact, a totalh' false view of 
the situation. If we regard the two curves, the loss curve 
as showing the work of the Navy, and the replacement curve 
England 
as showing that of the civilians, the course of the campaign 
is revealed to us almost at a glance. Where the White 
Paper curve misleads is that it understates the initial 
naval failure, by smoothing the curve for the three months 
April, May, and June. It understates, therefore, the really 
extraordinary character of the purely naval recovery of the 
position. To reahse this we should not only contrast the 
mean between the rate of los^in the third quarter of the year 
and the rate of loss at the finish, but the rate at its highest 
point in April, and at its lowest point in the second week of 
March this year. 
And, just as the recovery of the Navy is understated, so 
the civilian effort is, quite unintentionally, flattered. 
The published curve gives a picture of the civiHans about 
to join hands with the Navy early in 1918. But if we take 
the quarter which I have selected, we sec that, so far from the 
ciyilians rising to meet the sailors, they are indeed in full 
retreat from the enemy and retiring ignominiously from the 
■struggle. The curves, instead of converging, are not even 
parallel. The shipbuilders arc not contented to let the 
Navy improve and only fall off in the same degree that the 
Navy does improve. They have done worse ; they are 
falling back on one flank faster than their allies are advancing 
on the other, so that the curves, instead, of converging or 
becoming even parallel, arc actually getting wider apart. 
The Admiralty, of course, so far from having the slightest 
intention of veiling this unpleasant fact, take very great 
pains in the White Paper to warn the public against being 
deceived For we arc specially cautioned that production 
has fallen so far below the rate exhibited in the graph that 
"if some improvement is not speedily made, the point where 
production balances losses will be dangerously postponed." 
I venture to think that, had the curves been continued as 
they might well have been, to the end of Februarv, the 
graphic index to the position would have made any verbal 
caution unnecessary, and would amply have accounted ibr 
so drastic a step as the creation of^a new dictator of ship- 
building and the appointment of so eminent a master of 
the business as Lord Pirrie to the new office. 
Bad as this situation is, it is admittedly one that can be 
retrieved. The First Lord evidently expects it will be 
retrieved. But there is no immediate prospect of our seeing. 
OUR best are dying in field and flood, 
In our ears is the roar of a murderous hate. 
On the wings of the night comes a terror of blood, 
Was England ever so great ? 
She was great in the days that are gone, we know. 
When Drake was singeing the mad king's beard, 
When Marlborough smote for her blow on blow, 
When straight at the heart of his far-sought foe 
Our passionate Nelson steered ; 
When the worn red line stood, dogged and still. 
Facing the Conqueror's desperate stroke, 
.\nd over the brow of the gun-swept hill 
T^ surge of his squadrons eddied and broke. 
Aye, many a day when our Englishmen died 
England had honour, and place for her pride. 
But the land was touched by a poisonous breath, 
And her arm wa.xed faint, and her heart grew cold. 
And they laughed in their hate : "She is sick unto death. 
She is ripe for our sf)oiling, the hoarder of gold." 
And now ? Now before them she stands in the strait. 
The hope of the nations, high foeman of WTong.. 
Unfearing, she takes up the challenge of fate. 
The cold heart has kindled, the faint arm is strong. 
And the gleam of her legions has girdled the earth. 
As the lightning that flashes from East unto West, 
At the sound of her voice they have leapt to their birth. 
And the spoiler shall rue ere their banners have rest. 
Shall we fail, shall we doubt her ? She stands for the right. 
She was never so mighty, for never so true. 
Though in blood and in woe we must win to the light, 
Men and women of England, heads up and go through. 
H. M. D. 
in the British curve, so sharp an upward slope as the pub- 
lished diagram gives. For -the maximum output for this 
year is put at r, 800, 000 tons — a mean rate of 165,000 ton's a 
month for the next ten months, while it is onl}' by the begin- 
ning of next year that we hope to show a monthly output 
of a quarter of a million tons — assumed to be this country's 
maximum possibility of production. If, then, the two lines 
are to cross, the rate of loss reduced to zero, and a definite 
increase in the world's shipping to be brought about, we 
must rely upon two other elements in the problem. First, 
we must look to the Navy to cause a still greater decline in 
sinkings, and, next, to our Allies and to the neutrals to 
quicken their shipbuilding. Now, as to the last, there is 
every reason to believe that the United States should come 
very near producing four milUon tons this year. If another 
million can be got from other sources, this output, combined 
with our own, will give a mean rate for the year of 500,000 
tons a month, and would beat the present loss curve so 
greatly as to show a net gain of nearly a million and a quarter 
tons a quarter. At this rate, the world's net losses — even 
if they continued for some months longer — should be caught 
up befote we are far advanced in 1919. All this, of course, 
depends upon the shipbuilding effort here and abroad realising 
the hopes of those who are organising it. 
We are left, then, with the final question whether the 
rate of loss cannot be diminished. On this point the 
Admiralty, very prudently, dechnes to prophesy. But less 
responsible people may without undue rashness indicate 
their grounds for being optimistic. They arc, roughly, two. 
If we look at the monthly rate of loss in April and contrast 
it with that at the present time, we shall notice that the 
gap between the highest and the lowest point is enormous. 
Now, the naval effort which has accomplished this is marked 
by two characteristics. For want of a better term, it can 
be described first of all as almost mainly defensive. It has 
consisted, that is to say, chiefly in concentrating shipping 
into convoys, and then guarding those convoys by armed 
ships, so that a submarine desiring to carry out its mission 
must generally take the risk of encountering armed force 
superior to itself before it can do so. We had, in other 
words, finally, and after much hesitation, adopted in the 
latter half of last year the simple principle of naval strategy 
which had governed us in all previous sea wars when a similar 
difficulty had to be met. We interposed superior force 
between the enemy and its objective. I have called this 
pohcy "defensive" in full realisation that the term is mis- 
leading, because in the actual event it is the offensive which 
