June 13^ 19 1 8 
Land & Water 
must remember Wangenheim's state of mind at the time. 
Tlie whole world then believed that Paris was doomed ; 
Wangenheim kept saying that the war would be over in two 
or three months. The whole German enterprise was evidently 
progressing according to programme. 
I have already mentioned that the German Ambassador 
left for Berlin soon after the assassination of the Grand Duke, 
and he now revealed the cause of his sudden disappearance. 
The Kaiser, he told me, had summoned him to Berlin for an 
imperial conference. This meeting took place at Potsdam on 
July ^th. The Kaiser presided. Nearly all the Ambassa- 
dors attended ; Wangenheim came tp represent Turkey and 
enlighten his associates on' the situation in Constantinople. 
Moltke, then Chief of Staff, was there, representing the army, 
and Admiral von Tirpitz spoke for the navy. The great 
bankers, railroad directors, and the captains of German 
industry, all of whom were as necessary' to German war 
preparations as the army itself, also attended. 
Wangenheim new told me that the Kaiser sclemnly put 
the question to each man in turn. Was he ready for war? 
All replied "Yes," except the financiers. They said that 
they must have two weeks to sell their foreign securities and 
to make loans. At that time few people had looked upon 
tlie Sarajevo tragedy as something that was likely to cause 
war. This conference took all precautions that no such 
suspicion should be aroused. It decided to give the bankers 
time to readjust their finances for the coming war, and then 
tlie several members went quietly back to their work or 
started on vacations. The Kaiser went to Norway on his 
yacht, von Bethmann-Hollweg left for a rest, and Wangen- 
heim returned to Constantinople. 
In telling me about this conference, Wangenheim, of course, 
admitted that Germany had precipitated the war. I think 
that he was rather proud of the whole performance ; proud 
that Germany had gone about the matter in so methodical 
and far-seeing a way ; especially proud that he himself had 
been invited to participate in so momentous a gathering. 
The several blue, red, and yellow books which flooded Europe 
the few months following the outbreak, and the hundreds of 
documents which were issued by German propaganda 
attempting to establish Germany's innocence, never made 
any impression on me. For my conclusions as to the respon- 
sibility are not based on suspicions or belief or the study of 
circumstantial data. I do not liave to reason or argue about 
the matter. / know. 
The conspiracy that caused this greatest of human 
tragedies was hatched by the Kaiser and his imperial 
crew at this Potsdam Conference on July 5th, 1914. 
One of the chief participants, flushed with his triumph at 
the apparent success of the plot, told me the details with his 
own mouth. Whenever I hear people arguing about the 
responsibility for this war or read the clumsy and lying 
excuses put forth by Germany, 1 simply recall the burly 
figure of Wangenheim as he appeared that August afternoon, 
pufTing away at a huge black cigar, and giving me his account 
of this historic meeting. Why waste any time discussing 
the matter, after that ? 
This Imperial Conference took, place on July 5th ; the 
Serbian ultimatum was sent on July 22nd. That is just 
about the two weeks' interval which the financiers had 
demanded to complete their plans. All the great Stock 
E.xchanges of the world show that the German bankers 
profitably used this interval. Their records disclose that 
stocks were being sold in large quantities and that prices 
declined rapidly. At that time the markets were somewhat 
puzzled at this movement ; Wangenheim's explanation clears 
up any doubts that may still remjiin. Germany was changing 
her securities into cash, for war purposes. If any one wishes 
to verify Wangenheim, I would suggest that he examine the 
quotations of the New York Stock Market for these two 
historic weeks. He will find that there were astonishing 
-lumps in quotations, especially on the stocks that had an 
international market. Between July 5th and July 22nd, 
Union Pacific dropped from 155! to 127J, Baltimore and 
Ohio from 91 i to 81, United States Steel from 61 to 50J, 
Canadian Pacific from 194 to 185J, and Northern Pacific 
from 1 11^ to 108. 
Wangenheim not only gave me the details of this Potsdam 
conference, but he disclosed the same secret to the Marquis 
Garroni, the Italian Ambassador at Constantinople. Italy 
was at that time technically Germany's ally. 
The Austrian Ambassador, the Marquis Pallavicini, also 
practically admitted that tfie Central Powers had precipitated 
the war. On August i8th, Francis Joseph's birthday, I made 
the usual ambassadorial visit of congratulation. Quite 
naturally, the conversation turned upon the Emperor, who 
had that day passed his 84th year. Pallavicini spoke about 
him with the utmost pride and veneration. He told me how 
keen-minded and clear-headed the aged Emperor was ; how 
he had the most cortiplete understanding of international 
affairs, and gave everything his personal supervision. To 
illustrate the Austrian Kaiser's grasp of public events, 
Pallavicini instanced the present war. The previous May, 
Pallavicini had had an audience with Francis Joseph in 
Vienna. At that time, Pallavicini told me, the Emperor 
had said that a European war was unavoidable. The Central 
Powers would not accept-the Treaty of Bucharest as a settle- 
ment of the Balkan question, and only a general war, the 
Emperor had told Pallavicini, could ever settle that problem. 
The Treaty of Bucharest, I may recall, was the settlement 
that ended the Second Balkan War. This divided the 
European dominions of the Balkan States, excepting Con- 
stantinople and a small piece of adjoining territory, among 
the Balkan nations, chiefly Serbia and Greece. That treaty 
strengthened Serbia greatly ; so much did it increase Serbia's 
resources, indeed, that Austria feared that it had laid the 
beginning of a new European State that might grow suffi- 
ciently strong to resist her own plans of aggrandisement. 
Austria held a large Serbian population under her yoke in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina ; these Serbians desired, above 
everything* else, annexation to their own country. 
The Pan-German plans in the East necessitated the destruc- 
tion of Serbia, the State, which, so long as it stood intact, 
blocked the Germanic road to the East. It had been the 
Austro-German expectation that the Balkan War would 
destroy Serbia as a nation — that Turkey would simply 
annihilate King Peter's forces. This was precisely what the 
Germanic plans demande4, and for this reason Austria and 
Germany did nothing to prevent the Balkan wars. But the 
result was exactly the reverse ; out of the conflict arose a 
stronger Serbia than ever, standing firm like a breakwater 
against the Germanic path. Most historians agree that the 
Treaty of Bucharest made inevitable this war. I have the 
Marquis Pallavicini.'s evidence that this was likewise the 
opinion of Francis Joseph himself. The audience at which 
the Emperor made this statement was held in May, more 
than a month before the assassination of the Grand Duke. 
Clearly, therefore, the war would have come irrespective of 
the calamity at Sarajevo. That merely served as the con- 
venient pretext for the war upon which the Central Empires 
had already decided. 
All through that eventful August and September Wangen- 
heim continued his almost irresponsible behaviour — now 
blandly boastful, now depressed, always nervous and high- 
strung, ingratiating to an American like myself, spiteful and 
petty toward the representatives of the enemy Powers. He 
Was always displaying his anxiety and impatience by sitting 
on the bench, that he might be within two or three minutes' 
quicker access to the wireless communications that , were 
sent him from Berlin via the Corcovado. He would never 
miss an opportunity to spread the news of victories ; several 
times he adopted the unusual course of coming to my house 
unannounced, to tell me of the latest developments and to 
read me extracts from messages he had just received. He 
was always apparently frank, even indiscreet. 
I remember his distress the day that England declared 
war. He always professed a great admiration for England, 
and especially for America. "There are only three great 
countries," he would say over and over again, "Germany; 
England, and the United States. We three should get 
together ; then we could rule the world." This enthusiasm 
for the British Empire suddenly cooled when that Power 
decided to defend her treaty pledges and declared war. 
Wangenheim had said that the conflict would be a short one ; 
Sedan Day (September 2nd) would be celebrated in Paris. . 
But on August 5th, I called at his Embassy, and found him 
more than usually agitated and serious. Baroness Wangen- 
heim, a tall, handsome woman, was sitting in the room, 
reading her mother's memoirs of the war of 1870. Both 
regarded the news from England as almost a personal griev- 
ance ; what impressed me most was Wangenheim's utter 
failure to understand England's motives. " It's mighty poor 
politics on her part!" he exclaimed over and over again. 
His attitude was precisely the same as that of Bethmann- 
Hollweg with the "scrap of paper." 
I was out for a stroll on August 26th, and happened to 
meet the German Ambassador. He began to talk as usual 
about the German victories in France ; the German armies, 
he said, would be in Paris within a week. The deciding 
factor in this war, he said, would be the Krupp artillery: 
"And remember that this time we are making war. 
And we shall make it rucksichtslos (without any con- 
sideration)- We shall not be hampered as we were 
in 1870. Then Queen Victoria, the Tsar, and 
Francis Joseph interfered and persuaded us to spare 
Paris. But there is no one to interfere now- We 
