|une 20, 1910 
JL^ctllU LX. vv a.i.v-1 
Germany's Lost Illusions : By Arthur Pollen 
Harbour of Sevastopol, the Portsmouth of the Black Sea 
AN astute French, statesman remarked, when war 
broke out, that the folly of Germany could be 
measured by the fact that, by combining Russia 
and Great Britain against her, she had set out to 
attack the "two great intangibles." Russia 
seemed to be protected by the vastness of her territor}' and 
the simpUcity of her political organisation ; Great Britain 
by her ocean girdle. The epithet has long since been 
proved untrue of oui: northern ally. But it is still true of 
Great Britain ; and for the reason that it is true of us, it is 
trae also of the al^y that j oined us when Russia was on the 
eve of collapsing — America. 
Now, when the military force of Germany, relieved of 
pressure on the Eastern front, can concentrate its entire 
weight against us in the West, it is wholesome to bear in 
mind the truth 
that still remains 
in^Monsieur Cairi- 
bon's aphorism. 
It recalls to our 
recollection the 
fact that pri- 
marily and ulti- 
mately, the war, 
like its great 
predecessor a cen- 
tury ago, is for us 
a sea war ; and 
that Miough our 
military contribu- 
tion has been 
upon a colossal 
scale, the essen- 
tial-truth remains 
that, in winning 
or losing in a 
war with Great 
Britain, it is in 
what happens at 
sea, and not what 
happens on land, 
that the issue will b6 found. And that truth is 
culably more obvious when America is allied to us in 
the West with her resources in men only just beginning to 
appear in the field of war, and with Japan allied to us in the 
East, whose man-power has not yet been touched at all. 
It is this fundamental truth that made the situation a 
year ago so intensely grave. For we were within measurable 
distance. of being beaten at sea by the submarine. And it is 
because the submarine is becoming week by week a lesser 
danger, and because week by week the shipping of the 
Alliance is increasing much faster than it can be destroyed, 
that we shall do well to remember that, whatever our anxiety 
in watching, the titanic struggle, while it must be decisive for 
Germany if Germany fails, will be far from being decisive 
for the Alliance if Germany were to succeed. 
There is all the more reason why we should bear this 
truth in mind, because the clearer headed Germans can see it 
for thQ.mselves. There has recently become accessible to us 
the full text of three very significant statements. The first 
is von Kuhlmann's speech to the Berlin Chamber of Commerce, 
delivered on the occasion of his reporting and defining the 
German peace with Rumaniji. Next, there is Herr Dern- 
burg's article in the Neue *'Freie Presse deaUng with the 
American threat of the after-war boycott on raw materials. 
Lastly, there is Erzberger's defence against those who attacked 
him and his advocacy of the "No Annexation" resolutions 
passed a year ago in the Reichstag. 
Von Kiihlmann's speech is, naturally enough, a rhapsody 
over Germany's colossal apparent triumph in Russia, the 
Ukraine, and Rumania — a triumph the economic results of 
which are to be reaUsed by a ruthless exploitation of the 
conquered peoples, carried out in perfect agreement with 
Austro-Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria. Though the pros- 
pect is dazzUng, he adds that the Germans would make a 
very big mistake if they contented themselves with extending 
their economic base on the European continent, and were 
satisfied if they simply put themselves into a position to 
compete "numerically" with such units as the United States 
of America. 
These are not the aim and conclusion of our development, 
The Rhine flows into the North Sea, and the mighty Elbe, 
the artery of Central Germany, points us in tl^e same direc- 
incal- 
tion. . All these efforts . . . will in the long run be a spur 
and incentive to German trade to gravitate towards the 
first element of all great and really free trade, the free seas. 
To prepare this trade, to serve and strengthen its cause is 
the ultimate and highest aim of all the work and all the 
efforts, which have been brought before your mental vision 
to-day. When victory and peace shall have been won in 
this greatest of all wars, thanks to the valour and tenacity 
of the German people, and the genius of their leaders, and 
German merchant ships, built of German steel shall again 
sail the free seas under the black, white, and red stripes, 
then, . . . the German merchant will prove to the world 
that, in these years of sacrifice, he has only become more 
capable, more ready for peaceful competition with every 
nation, and not unworthy of the proud motto : Nulli Secundus. 
So that, unless his country can, when war is over, get back 
to pre-war condi- 
tions at sea, then 
all Germany's war 
efforts must have 
been wasted. 
Herr Dernburg 
is far more speci- 
fic. Except for 
Germany's ap- 
parent monopoly 
of potash, he has 
to admit that 
neither Germany 
nor any of the 
neutrals subser- 
vient to her, pro- 
duces any of the 
raw materials of 
which the rest of 
the world has 
need. Whereas 
the British Em- 
pire, the United 
States, and the 
South . American 
republics that 
have declared war against Germany, practically monopolise 
the ra,w materials, without which German industry is 
helpless. Peace, therefore, when it comes, he says, 
must include the fair rationing of these raw [materials 
between all the nations. He notes that [the Non- 
ferrous Metal Act, and wholesale purchasing of wool clips 
and crops have already made State monopolies of many 
of these essentials to German industry. The treaty of peace, 
then, must not merely guarantee a freedom for the Germans 
to trade on an equaUty with others in all these countries, it 
must provide compulsory powers of allocation to Germany of 
her share of these highly desirable products ! ' And it dawns 
on the puzzled Dernburg that this means a "League of 
Nations for the universal world provision of • a humanity 
suffering from an impoverishment of raw materials." Per- 
haps we shall not all agree upon the definition of " humanity." 
The Allies will be able to look after themselves and their 
friends, and the German claims to be included in "humanity" 
will certainly require strict proofs. Dernburg evades this 
point, and proceeds : 
"A thing of this kind {i.e., this economic j League of Nations) 
cannot be obtained in the event of a peace won purely by force. 
It requires peace by. understanding for which we are now, as 
always, ready, but which can only be concluded when our 
opponents have arrived at a similar position of reason. Our 
goodwill has not advanced us much in this direction. To-day 
the task which we must pursue with all our might is to bring 
about this condition of reason by force of circumstances." 
The German mind is surely a strange thing. Dernburg 
realises as clearly as any man can that a peace obtained by 
force — such, for instance, as a German victory in France — 
will not bring them what Germany wants, i.e., a League of 
Nations, based on equality of economic supply. He also" 
realises that this can only come by a peace by "understand- 
ing." "Let us, then," he says, "go forward with all our 
might — i.e., by force of circumstances — to bring about not 
a peace won by victory, but a condition when they, like 
'us (the Germans) will attain to that sweet reasonableness 
which makes some other kind of peace possible." 
Erzberger has to deal with his critics with one hand tied 
behind his back. He cannot say, for instance, that Turkey, 
Bulgaria, and Austria are beaten already, nor can he reiterate 
