LAND 65? WATER 
October 3, 1918 
2 Q^fiZay 5- 
could not see northward. Now the French have got it 
they can look right away for miles and see everything that 
goes on by the road and the railway of the valle}' where the 
Germans are based on Vouziers. 
The third detail is that of the^ Cambrai gate. It will be 
seen in further detail in the accohipanying sketch what the 
advance to the outskirts of Cambrai means. First note the 
network of roads which all meet in the town. Next, the 
railways, particularly the main railway from Cambrai towards 
Douai and the main road thither, which has been the German 
lateral communication here for years. Ne.xt observe how 
the two water defences have been turned by the Britisli 
success in forcing the gate between them. The crossing over 
the broad Scheldt Canal at Marcoing has turned the water 
obstacle, while the advance right up to the Cambrai-Douai road- 
has wholly the water obstacle to the north — that is, the Valley 
of the Agache, and therefore the principal defence of Douai. 
The campaign in Mesopotamia seems for the moment to 
have entered a political stage. It seems as though the role 
of the armies might terminate. The Struma road is not yet 
reached or cut but it is threatened, the two portions of the 
Bulgarian forces are certainly cut quite apart one from the 
other. Of the sixteen divisions which Bulgaria had in line, 
ten at least have suffered the blows of these last great actions. 
The complete triumph in Palestine has given us in the course 
of the week sundry further details. We now know that every 
gun has been captured and nearly every man. A complete 
total of 50,000 of the total Turkish forces under arms, some 
200,000, one quarter has disappeared. It should be noted 
how very weak are the Turkish Divisions at present. Eight 
divisions between the Jordan and the Mediterranean fur- 
nished less than 20,000 bayonets ! That is, the average of 
the division was little more than 2,000 bayonets strong. 
Of the seven Turkish armies, three have disappeared. The 
first will certainly be kept to the neighbourhood of Con- 
stantino])le for pohtical reasons. Another, the Fifth, barely 
more than the skeleton army, is also kept for political reasons 
in Asia Minor. There remains the strong army in the 
Caucasus, and the Si.xth in front of the British in Mesopo- 
tamia, but the stiiking power of the Turkish Army has 
ceased to be. The Germans talk of reinforcing both the 
Bulgarians and -Turkey. They have no one to send but 
what they can spare from the few divisions with Mackensen, 
and these cannot turn the tables. 
Postscript, Tuesday morning. — The dispatches of Monday, 
which arrive as we go to press, add little to the general review 
of the battle, though they confirm that nature in it which 
we have described, to wit, that it is essentially a series of 
actions compelling the enemy, whose general reserve is 
virtually exhausted, to move troops back and forth in support 
of threatened sections of his line one after the other. The 
increasing numerical superiority of the Alhes forbids him 
to make good depletion over the whole line. When he 
borrows from one apparently quiet sector to relieve another 
which is heavily menaced, the quiet sector thus rendered 
thin is at once attacked and yields. See, for instance, what 
has happened in the north : General Plumer and the Belgians 
upon his left having made that astonishing rapid advance 
last Saturday and Sunday ; and the Britisli Second Army 
having actually cut the road and railway between Menin 
and Roulers, wliich is also the main line between Lille and 
Ostend, everything to the north of the advance, including 
a part of Ostend itself, was in the gravest peril. The Ger- 
mans were absolutely compelled to reinforce here. When 
they first suffered the attack they had^had to meet it in the 
centre with only three divisions — the 13th of Reserve, and 
nth and 12th Bavarians ; that centre gave way altogether 
westwards of Ypres. Just as it was a matter of life and 
death to stop the American push at Argonne and the Meuse, 
so it was a matter as vital to check this astonishingly rapid 
advance near the sea. But the enemy cannot be everywhere 
at once ; his attempt to reinforce the north leads to a break 
north of St. Oufentin. It is an important move which has 
carried the British and Americans right beyond the original 
line by some 5,000 yards, and, what is most important, has 
begun the outlianking of St. Quentin. Meanwhile, on Monday 
morning, yet another blow was launched west of Rheirns. 
It is true that the enemy has organised his defences in 
depth very thoroughly, but mere organisation in defence, 
mere material objects, mean nothing without men, and the 
trial to which he is now subjected is a trial due to his increas- 
ing numerical inferiority. 
Whether we shall be able to put him to a still more severe 
ordeal by utilising the new front open to us from the Balkans 
only time can show, and the materials for judgment are not 
at our disposition. They depend upon the numbers we 
have available, the supplies from oversea by very lengthy 
communications, and the rolling-stock and condition of the 
roads as well. We must not talk as though the possession 
of Bulgaria was equivalent to the presence of great arrriies 
upon the Danube. It is not enough to open the door ; we 
must have some one to go through the door. But, at least, 
we can hope that the mainland communications in Con- 
stantinople will be cut, and for the rest we must wait. 
Though I do not usually allude to such tilings in these 
columns, 1 think I owe it to my readers to point out that 
here was it first said, just on three years ago when Bulgaria 
joined our enemies, that Bulgaria also would be the first of 
our enemies to defeat their cause. Military prophecy is a 
folly, and we have never indulged in it. Political prophecy 
is more possible, and in this case we were wise to have under- 
taken it. 
SIR VALENTINE GHIROL 
will contribute to next week's issue of 
Land & Water an article upon the Political 
Situation in The Balkans. 
