October 24, 1918 
LAND 6? WATER 
and definite aims. But the Republic was never much more 
than a name, both for those who proclaimed it, and those 
who, faute de miciix, accepted it. Very speedily was the 
truth of Mill's dictum made manifest, that when a people 
of excessive passivity are given representative government, 
or have it thrust upon them, they will elect as their repre- 
sentatives their' former j:yrants, and the yoke will be laid 
heavier upon them. The " election " to the Presidency of 
Yuan Shiii-k'ai, ex- Viceroy, Monarchist and orthodox Con- 
fucianist, was in itself proof that, except for the elimination 
of the Dragon Throne, the system of administration remained 
in all essentials unchanged. At the same time, it involved 
the certainty of civil strife and increased sufferings for the 
Chinese people, because, lacking the prestige of the Son of 
Heaven, neither Yuan nor any other mandarin could hope 
so to control the situation created by the revolution as to 
check the activities of the predatory and 'rebellious elements 
in the ' State. Yuan's dictatorship, and his subsequent 
attempt to restore the Throne, were inevitable, in strict 
accordance with every tradition and principle of Chinese 
statecraft. Had he had a free hand, unfettered by the 
intervention of foreign Powers or the claims of foreign bond- 
holders, had his opponents not been assisted by money and 
encouraged by advice from abroad, he would in all proba- 
bility have succeeded in restoring peace and order in the 
Middle Kingdom. But the civilised world was too busy 
with its own troubles to devote any intelligent attention 
to China's plight and its causes. So Yuan died and was 
gathered to his fathers ; and with his passing, the Chinese 
Republic, once more joyfully proclaimed by frock-coated 
mandarins as the spiritual home of true constitutional govern- 
ment, embarked with renewed vigour upon the primrose 
path of civil war. 
Ostensibly, of course, and for decency's sake, this war 
has been proclaimed as a noble struggle for the vindication 
of pure democracy between the "reactionaries" of the North 
and the "progressives" of the South. Above the growling 
bass of the Tuchuns, breathing fire and sword, comes ever 
the shrill voice of the professional politician, endlessly dis- 
puting nice points of constitutional procedure, of the powers 
of Parliaments and Presidents, of cabbages and kings. But 
no Chinese, be he ever so humble, has any doubts as to the 
real cause of all these alarms and excursions, the real motive 
of these warring factions. As it was under the Manchus, 
and under the Mings before them, so it is under the Republic. 
The struggle remains essentially a struggle for money ; and 
the men who direct it, on both sides, are pur-sang mandarins, 
trained in all the traditions of a bureaucracy which lives 
not for, but on, the people. The leopard has not changed ' 
his spots ; he has merely camouffled them with a new 
design of parliamentary jargon. 
Survival of the Grey and Elder Statesmen 
For observe: the prominent leaders. of the "Northern" 
and "Southern" parties, the men who direct the manipula- 
tion of elections and the activities of the rival Parliaments 
at Pekifig and Canton, are nearly all mandarins who learned 
their business and held high office under the Manchus and, 
after them, under Yuan Shih-k'ai. Wlio are now the ack- 
nowledged spokesmen of the Cantonese " Radicals," of the 
party which recently proposed to seize the revenues of the 
Maritime Customs in order to provide funds for the bandit 
forces of General Lu Yung-ting ? Foremost among them 
is the aged Wu Ting-fang, erstwhile representative of Her 
Majesty Tzu Hsi at Washington, an Oriental prototype of 
the Vicar of Brav ; and associated with him are two typical 
mandarins of the old regime, to wit, Tsen Chun-hsuan, 
ex-Viceroy of Kueichou, once a faithful and reputedly blood- 
thirsty henchman of the "Old Buddha," and Tang-Shao-yi, 
a graduate of Yale and Minister of Foreign Affairs under the 
last of the Manchils. As for the leaders of the so-called 
Northern Party, the steadfast continuity of their political 
traditions might be proved by countless instances. Let it 
suffice here to observe that the dignitary whom thev have 
recently elected to the Presidency of the Republic (with the 
approval of the Tuchuns in conference assembled) is the 
patriarchal Hsii Shih-chang, ex- Viceroy of Manchuria, Imperial 
tutor and guardian of the Heir Apparent. His election, 
which has been promptly greeted by a fresh declaration of 
war from his ex-colleagues at Canton, obviously suggests 
the probability of a new movement for the restoration of 
the throne in the near future. Also, it points unmistakably 
^o. the hidden hand of Liang Shih-yi, shrewdest and subtlest 
of Chinese politicians, a Cantonese (but of the orthodox 
school), past-master of political finance and commercial 
diplomacy. The record and achievements of this remark- 
ably silent but all-pervading personage have not received 
abroad the attention they deserve. At Peking, as Minister 
of Communications before the revolution, he had proved 
himself to be an administrator of extraordinary ability ; as 
Yuan Shih-k'ai's confidential secretary and chief advi?er, 
he was chiefly responsible for the skilful abdication of the 
Manchus and forthe subsequent organisation of themonarchical 
movement. Alwajs unobtrusive, his methods and prin- 
ciples are those of the old classical mandarinate. But Lit rg 
may confidently be expected to emerge, at the right moment, 
with attractive proposals for a modus vivendi based on equality 
of opportunity. 
No one knows better than this most astute of wire-pullers 
that the Tuchuns are not concerned so much with the science 
of war as with the science of nest-feathering ; also, he knows 
that on the day when Tuan Chi-jui and his colleagues of the 
Cabinet at Peking can no longer provide the ten million 
dollars a month which the Tuchuns declare to be requisite 
for the initial preparation of their forces for the fray, the 
time will have arrived for an amicable compromise with 
regard to the essentially academic principles of representa- 
tive government. As matters stand, the Government at 
Peking has come within measurable distance of that time, 
for the only two sources from which it can still hope to draw 
money are the proposed opium monopoly, and fresh borrow- 
ings from the Industrial Bank of Japan ; both of which are 
doubtful not to say dangerous. "Administrative" and 
"military" expenses under the Republic have reduced th^ 
natioml finances to a state of chaotic insolvency far beyond 
anything achieved by the worst abuses of the Manchu 
Government, and this despite the great advantages which 
the Ministry of Finance has derived from the suspension of 
the Boxer indemnities, the rise in the value of silver, and 
the vastly improved revenues of the Salt Gabelle. 
The Business Side of Militarism 
The question naturally arises, if, under the Manchus, 
the Government was able to meet its obligations and to 
finance the public services on an income which seldom 
exceeded six or seven millions sterling, why are the country's 
present resources insufficient for its needs ? Why should 
it be necessary to mortgage the nation's economic and indus- 
trial future, not to say its dignity and sovereign rights, in 
a mad scramble for foreign loans at all costs ? The answer 
is that the Tuchuns' highly ingenious development of the 
mandarin-squeeze system, in this business of bloodless but 
expensive warfare, is bound to empty the national exchequer, 
rapidly and completely, no matter what its resources. Their 
modus operandi was plainly shown at the August Conference 
of the Tuchuns in Tientsin, when, in spite of the fact that the 
nation at large is all for peace, the military governors voted for 
continuing the campaign against the South, on condition only 
that the Government should forthwith provide the sums re- 
quired by each general for " mobilisation " and other expenses. 
Whether militant or pacifist, the military party has, 
in fact, become a highly organised business enterprise, of 
which the Tuchuns are directors ; their plunder-fed troops, 
recruited chiefly from the lawless element of society, 
combine the ' functions of small shareholders with those 
of a marketable stock-in-trade. As for this , rank and 
file, it cherishes no foolish delusions as to the patriotic pur- 
poses of its professional existence ; both Government and 
"rebel" forces are usually prepared to change sides at short 
notice, on being presented with 'reasonable inducements in 
cash, and provided that the risks of serious hostilities are 
not too great. This being the situation, all the talk about 
a campaign of the North against the South for the defence 
of the Constitution may fairly be regarded as in the nature 
of an enterprising business prospectus. We are also justified 
in concluding that this kind of enterprise will subside of itself, 
and the profitable occupation of the Tuchuns be gone, so 
soon as the Allied Powers come to recognise the simple fact 
that the present civil war in China (which, though com- 
paratively harmless for the troops, is fatal to all forms of 
productive industry) is essentially a sordid matter of money. 
When this is realised, it should be possible, by mutual 
self-denying agreement, to withhold air further advances of 
money to either side. The strife would then come to an end. 
The wider and ultimate problem of efficient administration 
and financial stability for China must await the restoration 
of peace in Europe. But it may safely be asserted that it 
can never be solved to the satisfaction of the Chinese people, 
except with the restoration of the throne, which is the 
essential centre of the Confucian system, and with some 
form of benevolent despotism. In the present state of the 
political development of the Chinese people, the idea of 
stimulating the Republican system of government is possi- 
ble and can only lead to chronic anarchy. 
