WATERFOWL SITUATION 
SUMMARY AND FALL FLIGHT FORECAST 
Analysis supplied by Walter F. Crissey 
Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife 
The breeding ground survey conducted 
during May and June provides the most 
reliable measure of trend in population of 
most species of ducks important to the 
hunter, A recent improvement inthis survey 
has provided estimates of the proportion of 
birds present that are seen and recorded by 
the aerial crews. With this improvement, it 
is possible to estimate the total breeding 
population of the most important duck species 
in North America. The population trend for 
all ducks except scoter, eider, merganser, 
and oldsquaw is presented in figure H-1, 
(p. 163) for the period 1950-1963, It is 
important to note that the breeding population 
in the spring of 1962 reached a point which 
was 38 percent below the average of the 
previous 12 years; 47 percent below the 
peak population reached in 1956; and 17 
percent below 1961, 
Another series of data related to the 
period begins in 1953 when the survey 
to measure kill was developed to a point 
where the Bureau could begin to rely on the 
results. The estimated kill of ducks by 
flyway for the period 1953-1962 is shown 
in figure H-2 (p. 164). Proportionately, the 
decrease in kill of ducks since 1957 has 
exceeded the decrease in breeding popula- 
tion. Specifically, the estimated number of 
ducks bagged reached a peak of about 12.8 
million in 1957 and decreased to about 3 
million in 1962, a decrease of about 75 per- 
cent. The breeding population reached a 
peak in 1956 and by 1962 had decreased 47 
percent, This difference is as it should be. 
During the mid-1950’s when habitat condi- 
tions were good and production ratios were 
high, hunters were killing a large portion of 
the fall flight without reducing the population 
level, In 1962, there were few young in the 
fall flight and only a small portion of the popu- 
lation could be killed if the population level 
was to be maintained. 
The difference in kill rates between the 
mid-1950’s and the early 1960’s is con- 
firmed by banding data. When corrected for 
non-reporting rate, of which we have a 
measure, the portion of banded birds that are 
54 
taken and reported by hunters can be used 
to measure the portion of the population 
that is bagged by hunters, Particularly in 
the Central and Mississippi Flyways, band 
recovery rates for important species have 
decreased markedly in the last 2 or 3 years, 
coincident with the very restrictive regula- 
tions, 
It is significant to note that band recovery 
rates associated with the Pacific Flyway 
have not decreased nearly so much and are 
now considerably higher than in either the 
Central or Mississippi Flyways. This is not 
surprising in view of the longer season and 
larger bag limit in the Pacific Flyway, but 
it means that hunters there are now killing a 
higher portion of the birds available to them 
during the shooting seasonthan are hunters in 
the other flyways. 
In figure H-2 the pattern of decrease in 
kill for the period 1958-1962 in the Pacific 
Flyway is very similar to the pattern of 
decrease in the Central and Mississippi Fly- 
ways. In all three flyways, there was a 
marked decrease in 1959, no change or a 
slight increase in 1960, a sharp decrease 
in 1961, and another decrease in 1962. 
With a measure of kill for each year, and 
with a measure of the proportion this kill 
was of the total population present, as sup- 
plied by band recovery rates, it is possible 
to estimate the comparative size of the 
population available to hunters during the 
shooting season. When this approach is 
applied to the Pacific Flyway for the period 
1958-1962, it leads to the conclusion that 
during the shooting season the number of 
ducks available to hunters has decreased 
about 50 percent for the period. 
Another series of data of extreme im- 
portance is derived from a combination of 
age ratio data from our wing collection 
surveys and mortality estimates from band- 
ing. Sufficient data are now available from 
the wing collection surveys conducted during 
the period 1959-1962 that are quite specific 
concerning the overall production rates for 
those years, In addition, mallard age ratios 
determined by a less efficient method and 
obtained primarily from the Mississippi 
