decrease of 62 percent from 1960. When 
it is realized that more than 5.5 million 
ponds were estimated in this area in 1955, 
the degree to which drought has reduced 
available breeding habitat becomes obvious. 
In the north, spring breakup was late and 
in northern Alberta and the western part 
of the Northwest Territories there was 
considerable flooding. These conditions are 
not conducive to good production. Only in 
parts of Alaska were conditions judged to 
be favorable to the rearing of broods. 
Production surveys during July 1961 
reflected the adverse weather and habitat 
conditions that existed. Throughout the 
southern parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan, 
and Manitoba, and inthe Dakotas and western 
Minnesota, the July surveys revealed less 
production than any year since breeding- 
ground surveys were started. Surveys in 
northern Alberta and the Northwest Terri- 
tories indicate the possibility of a 50- 
percent reduction in number of broods as 
compared with last year. Drought is also 
expected to reduce production in Montana 
and Wyoming. In Nebraska water condi- 
tions were better and productionis expected 
to about equal that of last year. Increases 
were noted in the northern parts of 
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and in Ontario. 
In Alaska, production is expected to equal 
or exceed that of last year. 
a 
FLIGHT FORECAST 
DUCKS 
Viewed collectively, the increases in 
production are in no respect expected to 
balance the large decreases, and when 
coupled with a breeding population about 
equal in size to that of last year leads to 
37 
the conclusion that there will be a major 
decrease in the fall flight of ducks in the 
Central Flyway this year compared with 
1960. Further, since production is judged 
to be less in 1961 than during the summer 
of 1959, due to greater severity of drought 
conditions, it is estimated that the decrease 
will exceed that recorded in the fall of 
1959. 
GEESE 
The annual winter survey indicated a 
little decrease in the goose population in 
the Flyway, as compared with last year. A 
review of the winter trend data for geese 
reveals that although the population winter- 
ing in the Flyway has been fluctuating quite 
irregularly, there has been a downward 
trend in recent years. This downward 
trend is due to lesser numbers of snow, 
blue, and white-fronted geese, and not to 
a decrease in Canada geese. 
Since goose production survey data are 
lacking, average production is assumed. 
Therefore, it is expected that the fall 
flights of these species will be the same as 
last year's. Compared with 1959, it is 
expected that the fall flight of Canada 
geese will be about the same; the flight of 
Snow and blue geese will be somewhat 
smaller; and the flight of white-fronted 
geese will be markedly reduced. 
COOT 
The production of coot in all important 
breeding areas is expected to be markedly 
reduced by drought conditions. Therefore, 
a major reduction of this species in the 
fall flight is expected. 
MISSISSIPPI FLYWAY 
SUMMARY 
During the January 1961 winter survey, 
the highest number of ducks in the Missis- 
sippi Flyway in the past 13 years was 
recorded. However, this figure must be 
interpreted before it can be used as an 
indicator of population change. Of greater 
significance is the mallard population which 
did not change noticeably from the number 
recorded last year. Age-ratio data collected 
during the shooting season in 1959 and in 
1960 revealed a considerably higher ratio 
of young to adults in 1960 than in 1959. It 
was estimated last year that production 
would be better than in 1959 but that the 
increased production would no more than 
balance the decrease in the number of 
breeders which resulted from the low 
production in 1959. When the kill data and 
the winter survey data for the 2 years are 
combined it appears that, for mallards at 
