average production is assumed. Therefore, 
it is expected that the fall flights of all 
four species will be the same as last year. 
However, it is expected that the flight of 
Canada, blue, and white-fronted geese will 
be somewhat larger in 1961 as compared 
with 1959, while the flight of snow geese 
will be somewhat reduced. 
39 
cOOT 
Production of coot inall important breed- 
ing areas is expected to be markedly 
reduced as a result of drought. Therefore, 
a major reduction in the fall flight is 
expected in the Mississippi Flyway. 
ATLANTIC FLYWAY 
SUMMARY 
In forecasting changes in the fall flight, 
breeding-ground survey data cannot be 
used to so great an extent in the Atlantic 
Flyway as in the other three Flyways. This 
is due primarily to a lack of adequate 
techniques for conducting surveys in the 
important Quebec-Labrador breeding area. 
Therefore, it is necessary to depend toa 
large extent on the results of the annual 
winter surveys for determining population 
trends in the Flyway. 
The winter survey of January 1961 
suggests some improvement in the number 
of ducks as compared with numbers in 1960 
(+8 percent); however, an examination of 
winter survey data for the Atlantic Flyway 
(in Appendix C of this report) reveals that 
the improvement was due to increases in 
numbers of diving ducks, mostly scaup, 
redfead, and canvasback. Populations gains 
in redhead and canvasback are encouraging, 
but the status of both species is still low 
due to loss of breeding habitat resulting 
from drought. Of greater significance is 
the decrease of 14 percent in black duck 
numbers after the small gain made by the 
Species last year. Also, the numbers of 
mallard and pintail changed very little 
(-1 percent and +9 percent, respectively). 
It is evident that species contributing 
heavily to the duck kill in the Atlantic 
Flyway have made no recovery from the 
low populations recorded during the past 
4 years. 
The part of the Atlantic Flyway popula- 
tion coming from western breeding areas 
is expected to decrease this year. Severe 
drought in the Dakotas and the southern 
parts of the Prairie Provinces will markedly 
reduce the number of birds from these 
important areas. Although an increase in 
the number of adult birds in northern 
Alberta and the Northwest Territories 
resulted from birds being displaced north- 
ward by drought in the prairies, the number 
of broods was much reduced. Only in 
Alaska, the northern parts of Saskatchewan 
and Manitoba, and in Ontario, is production 
expected to be better than last year, and 
these minor increases are not sufficient 
to balance the major decreases. 
Since production survey data are lacking 
from Quebec and Labrador, it must be 
assumed that in this region production will 
be average. On this basis, it is estimated 
that the flight of black ducks will be the 
same as last year but somewhat below the 
1959 flight. It is estimated that most other 
duck species in the Atlantic Flyway will be 
considerably reduced as compared with 
last year. ‘ 
For canvasback, redhead, and ruddy duck, 
the situation is again unfavorable. During 
1960, fair amount of over-water nesting 
habitat was available as a result of the 
somewhat improved water conditions and 
the luxuriant vegetation which grewin many 
of the potholes; however, declining water 
levels in many ponds this year left exposed 
mudflats and surrounding open expanses of 
water. Due to severe reduction of suitable 
nesting habitat, canvasback and redhead 
production is expected to be very low this 
year. 
FLIGHT FORECAST 
DUCKS 
When all sources of information are 
combined, at least a moderate reduction 
in the fall flight of ducks is expected in 
the Atlantic Flyway. Further, the flight 
of ducks this fall will be considerably 
below the levels of the flights in the period 
1952 through 1956. 
