610 Retrafpedt of Domeftic Literature.—P litical Economy. 
fcience of agriculture is fo well under- 
ftood, that human induftry has the 
faireft chance of receiving its belt di- 
rection. Let it be be granted, then, 
that by the beft poffible policy, and by 
great encouragements to agriculture, 
the average produce of Great Britain, 
for inftance, might be doubled, toge- 
ther with its population, in the fir 
twenty-five years. Population goes 
on uninterruptedly, and in the fecond 
twenty-five years, becomes quadru- 
pled. But can it be fuppofed, ‘that by 
any fyftem of policy and encourage- 
ment the produce of the foil of Great 
Britain could alfo be quadrupled in the 
fecond twenty-five years? On the con- 
trary, is it not alinoft a felf-evident 
propofition, ‘* that in proportion as 
cultivation is extended, the addition 
that could yearly be made to the for- 
mer average produce muit be gradually 
and -regularly diminiihing ?” Mr. 
Malthus, however, gives the vantage 
ground to his antagoniit, and coniiders 
that the yearly additions which might 
be made to the former average produce 
inftead of decreafing, as they certainly 
would do, will remain the fame; that 
is to fay, that the produce of this ifland 
amight be increated every twenty-five 
years by a quantity equal to what it at 
- prefent produces. ‘* The moft enthu- 
fiaftic {peculator,” fays he, ** cannot 
fuppofe a greater increaie than this: in 
a few centuries it would make every 
acre of land like a garden. Apply 
this to the whole earth ; allow that its 
roduce fhall every twenty-five years 
ai increaled by a quantity equal to 
what it at prefent produces, and this 
will be fuppofing a rate of increafe 
much greater than we can imagine that 
any poflible exertions of mankind could 
make it. 
therefore, under the moft favourable cir- 
camftances, cannot pofhibly be made to 
increafe fafter than in an arithmetical 
ratio, while human population, under 
the moft favourable circumitances, 
would increafe in a geometrical ratio. 
*¢ The necefiary effec of thefe two dif- 
ferent rates of' increafe,”’ fays Mr. 
Malthus, “‘ when brought together, 
will be very ftriking. Jet us call the 
population of this ifland eleven mil- 
lions ; and fuppofe the prefent produce 
egual to the eafy fupport of fuch a 
number. In the firft twenty-five years 
the population would be twenty-two 
amillions; and the food being alfo dou- 
bléd, the means of fubfiftence would 
7 
The means of fubfiftence,. 
be equal to this increafe. In the next 
twenty-five years the population would 
- be forty-four millions, and the means 
of fubfiftence only equal to the fup- 
port of thirty-three millions. In the 
next period the population would be 
eigthy-eight millions, and the means 
of fubfiftence juft equal to the fupport 
of half thatnumber. And at thecon- 
clufion of the frft century, the popula- 
tion would be a hundred and feventy-fix 
millions, and.the means of fubfiftence 
only equal to the fupport of fifty-five 
millions; Jeaving a population of a 
hundred and twenty-one millions to- 
tally unprovided for. 
«* Taking the whole earth, inftead 
of this ifland, emigration would of 
courfe be excluded ; and fuppofing the 
prefent population equal to a thoufand 
millions, the human fpecies would in- 
creafe as the numbers 7, 25 4, 8, 165 32 
64, 128, 256, and fubfiftence as 3, 2, 
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Instwo centuries 
the population would be to the means 
of fubfillence as 256 to 9; in three cen- 
turies as 4096 to 13, and in two thou- 
fand years the difference would be al- 
moft incalculable. In this fuppofition 
no limits whatever are placed to the 
produce of the earth. It may increafe 
for ever, and be greater than any af- 
fignable quantity; yet ftill the power 
of population being 1n every period fo 
much fuperior, the increafe of the hu- 
man fpecies can only be kept down to 
the level of the means of fubfiftence by 
the conftant operation of the {trong 
law of necceflity aéting as a check upon 
the greater power.” 
Having thus ftated the argument, 
Mr. Malthus proceeds to notice gene- 
ral checks to population and the mode 
of their operation, Thefe checks he 
clafles under two general heads, the 
preventive and poditive; the former 
is peculiar to man, and arifes from that 
ditinctive fuperiority in his reafoning 
faculties, which enables him to calcu- 
late diftant confequences. Man, before 
1€ enters into the conjugal itate, pen- 
ders upon the probability or the im- 
probability that his earnings, now- 
pernaps little more than adequate to 
his comfortable fubfiftence, will be fuf- 
ficent, when divided among a wife and 
half a dozen children, of fupporting 
them at all: he forefees that hé muit 
work harder and fare worfe. He re- 
fiects that perhaps his offspring as weil 
as himfelf, muft be half-farved and 
half naked. Thefe and many fimilar 
. ; coniiderations 
