368     CULTURE  AND  COMMERCE  IN  OPIUM  IN  ASIA  MINOR. 
Before  the  epoch  at  which  the  writer's  record  begins  a  fair 
crop  consisted  of  only  2000  baskets,  and  the  average  price  was 
about  11  s.  6.  d.  The  established  progress  of  this  article  in  so 
short  a  time  is  without  parallel,  the  crops  having  nearly  doubled 
themselves,  and  prices  risen  to  fully  50  per  cent.  It  would 
have  been  natural  to  suppose,  that  with  such  an  increased  pro- 
duction prices  would  have  lowered  in  proportion,  which  no  doubt 
wrould  have  been  the  case,  if  demand  had  not  also  kept  pace. 
This,  to-day,  cannot^  be  properly  satisfied  under  a  supply  of  say 
3,500  baskets,  beyond  which  only  prices  give  way.  It  must  not, 
however,  be  supposed  that  they  can  possibly  go  lower  than  the 
average  of  a  full  crop,  for  then  it  would  not  pay  the  agriculturist 
to  cultivate  this  article,  and  would  cause  him  to  turn  his  atten- 
tion to  other  and  more  profitable  productions ;  this  would  natu- 
rally have  the  effect  of  diminishing  considerably  the  ensuing 
crop,  and  raising  its  price.  It  is  only  in  the  farthest  districts 
from  Smyrna  that  the  grower  is  obliged,  as  it  were,  to  cling  to 
Opium,  for  the  expense  of  transit  prevents  the  exportation  of 
all  other  articles,  which,  remaining  for  local  consumption,  com- 
mand only  a  low  price.  But  as  Opium  alone,  on  account  of  its 
small  bulk  in  comparison  to  value,  can  bear  the  forwarding  charges, 
it  is  almost  under  any  circumstances  the  best  paying  article  for 
the  said  districts. 
The  fact  must  not  be  overlooked,  that  the  demand  is  still 
slowly,  but  steadily  increasing,  and  that  on  the  other  hand  the 
productive  capacities  of  the  Opium  districts  are  at  their  climax. 
When,  therefore,  prices  are  under  or  about  a  corresponding  crop 
out  of  the  last  ten  years,  the  opportunity  should  not  be  missed. 
With  reference  to  the  average  price  of  some  twelve  to  fifteen 
years  ago,  it  must  be  observed  that  the  necessaries  of  life  were 
at  that  time  so  much  cheaper,  that  the  then  11.  s.  6.  d.  was  per- 
haps more  remunerate  than  the  16.  s.  6.  d.  of  the  last  ten  years. 
[Note. — This  paper  was  published  in  Smyrna  (Asia  Minor) 
in  April,  1868,  in  pamphlet  form,  by  the  author,  who  in  prefa- 
tory note  states  that  it  was  given  at  the  request  of  several 
friends,  and  is  based  on  his  personal  knowledge.] 
