Potential climatic and elevational range shifts in the Italian narrow endemic Bellevalia webbiana (Asparagaceae) under climate change scenarios

By

Peruzzi, Lorenzo
Dolci, David
Chiarucci, Alessandro

Type

Article

Date of Publication

2022

Original Publication

Nature conservation

Volume

50

Pages

145--157

Subjects

Area of occupancy , climate change , Conservation , Endangered , Environmental Niche Modelling , Maxent , potential distribution

Contributed by

Pensoft Publishers

Language

English

Published by

Sofia, Bulgaria Pensoft Publishers 2012-

Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.50.91265

 

Abstract

The Webb’s hyacinth (Bellevalia webbiana Parl., Asparagaceae) is an Italian narrow endemic species, listed as Endangered (EN A2c) in the IUCN Global Red List of Threatened Species. The range of this bulbous perennial herb is restricted to two disjunct areas of Central Italy, separated by the mountain ridge of Northern Apennine. To evaluate the impact of climate change on this species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) to predict future potential distribution under different scenarios, through Maximum entropy algorithm. The estimated potential distribution highlights the vulnerability of Webb’s hyacinth to the effects of climate change. The current potential Area Of Occupancy (AOO) (992 2×2 km cells) is forecast to dramatically decrease in the range 2041–2100, under the scenarios SSP3-7.0 (2070 = –249, 2100 = –682) and SSP5-8.5 (2070 = –372, 2100 = –948). In all future scenarios, the predicted potential distribution shifts towards higher elevations, located in the two main areas in which the species currently occurs. This could imply a loss of the current genetic differentiation documented at the population level. To overcome these problems, in addition to assisted colonization, an ex situ conservation programme should be planned.