Modelling the invasion dynamics of the African citrus psyllid: The role of human-mediated dispersal and urban and peri-urban citrus trees

By

Nunes, Pedro
Robinet, Christelle
Branco, Manuela
Franco, José Carlos

Type

Article

Date of Publication

2023

Original Publication

NeoBiota : advancing research on alien species and biological invasions

Volume

84

Pages

369--396

Subjects

Insect Vectors , invasive , isolated trees , Models , non-native species , psyllids , spread , Trioza erytreae

Contributed by

Pensoft Publishers

Language

English

Published by

Sophia, Bulgaria Pensoft Publishers

Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.84.91540

 

Abstract

The African citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera, Triozidae), is native to tropical Africa and invasive species in North America and Europe. The main host plants are citrus, displaying a preference for lemon trees. This psyllid was recently detected in the northwest region of the Iberian Peninsula, both in Spain and Portugal. Here, we used a model combining a reaction-diffusion model to a stochastic long-distance dispersal model to simulate the invasion dynamics of T. erytreae in Portugal. The psyllid spread in Portugal was simulated between 2015 and 2021 for different combinations of model parameters: two fecundity levels; spread with and without stochastic long-distance dispersal; single or two introductions of T. erytreae; and considering or not the urban and peri-urban citrus trees, besides citrus orchards, estimated using Google Street view imagery. The incorporation of long-distance human mediated dispersal significantly improved the F1-score in the model validation using the official reports as the observed data. Concomitantly, the dispersal rate of T. erytreae in Portugal was on average about 66 km/year, whereas removing long-distance dispersal events, the observed mean was 7.8 ± 0.3 km/year. The dispersal was mainly towards the south along the coastline, where human population is concentrated. The inclusion of the estimated citrus trees outside orchards areas significantly increased the F1-score in the model validation, revealing the importance these isolated host plants hold as stepping stones for the species current invasion and possibly for other species alike.