Where in Europe is Chrysomya albiceps? Modelling present and future potential distributions

By

Rodrigues Filho, Sérgio José
Dos Santos Lobato, Fabrício
Medeiros De Abreu, Carlos Henrique
Rebelo, Maria Teresa

Type

Article

Date of Publication

2023

Original Publication

NeoBiota : advancing research on alien species and biological invasions

Volume

85

Pages

81--99

Subjects

Blowflies , Calliphoridae , climate suitability , European continent , Maxent , species distribution modelling

Contributed by

Pensoft Publishers

Language

English

Published by

Sophia, Bulgaria Pensoft Publishers

Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.85.96687

 

Abstract

Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), a species of blowfly (Diptera, Calliphoridae), historically distributed throughout Southern Europe, has recently dispersed to cooler regions in Europe, which is an intriguing phenomenon. In this work, we used Maxent software to formulate climate suitability using a machine learning technique to investigate this fact. The bioclimatic variables that best explained the climate suitability were Annual Mean Temperature (67.7%) and Temperature Annual Range (21.4%). We found that C. albiceps is climatically suitable for several parts of Europe, except for high altitude areas like the Swiss Alps. In warmer countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the entire coastal territory was the most suitable for the species. Future scenario models show that in these eastern countries and some northern areas, climate suitability has increased. This increase is reinforced when comparing the gains and losses in climate suitability between the present-day model and the future scenario models. These changes are most likely caused by changes in temperature, which is the main explanatory factor among the tested variables, for the climate suitability. As one of the most important species in forensic contexts and a potential myiasis agent, the expansion of C. albiceps to new locations cannot be neglected, and its expansion must be carefully monitored.