Invasive alien plants cause severe global problems; therefore, determining the factors that lead to the success or failure of invasion is a critical question in the field of invasion ecology. In this study, we aimed to determine the factors underlying differences in the distribution range of alien plants in Japan by investigating why Lolium multiflorum thrives in a wide range of habitats while L. rigidum is mainly distributed on sandy beaches. We initially evaluated environmental niche suitability through species distribution modelling and subsequently examined whether species traits influence the differences in range expansion between the two species. We used MaxEnt modelling to identify potential environmental niches for both species. The analysis revealed that L. rigidum was considerably less suited to the Japanese climate compared to L. multiflorum, with high summer precipitation in Japan identified as one of the climatic factors limiting the distribution of L. rigidum. Given that these winter annual plants remain dormant as seeds during summer, in subsequent experiments, we buried seeds in paddy field soil and sandy beach sand during summer and evaluated their survival rate in autumn. The survival rate of L. rigidum seeds was significantly lower than that of L. multiflorum, particularly in paddy soil. Factors contributing to seed mortality may include the decay or early germination of L. rigidum seeds under Japan’s high rainfall conditions. This study emphasises the importance of considering local environmental factors alongside climate niche modelling in the risk assessment of invasive species. Moreover, the integration of species distribution modelling for large-scale evaluations and manipulation experiments for fine-scale assessments proved effective in identifying climatic conditions and species traits influencing the success or failure of alien species invasion.
