Hiding in plain sight: an evolutionary approach to the South American Zika outbreak and its future consequences

By

Apari, Péter
Bajer, Katalin
Brooks, D. R. (Daniel R.), 1951-
Molnar, Orsolya

Type

Article

Date of Publication

2019-11-26

Original Publication

Nature conservation

Volume

36

Pages

1--5

Subjects

Emerging Infectious Disease , outbreaks , Stockholm Paradigm , Zika virus.

Contributed by

Pensoft Publishers

Language

English

Published by

Sofia, Bulgaria Pensoft Publishers 2012-

Identifiers

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/zoologia.36.e36272

 

Abstract

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) pose a world-wide health and socio-economic threat. Accelerating climate change and globalization are exposing unforeseen ways that pathogens cope with their surroundings. The 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak was an example of expansion into previously inaccessible fitness spaces, causing a sudden epidemic. Recent studies indicating the subsequent decrease in symptomatic cases means the virus is in remission, currently poses little threat, and therefore can be ignored. We present an evolutionary scenario derived from the Stockholm Paradigm, of oscillating phases of expansion and isolation, accompanied by changes in transmission, persistence, virulence, and pathology. Chief among these is the likelihood that asymptomatic strains are constantly transmitted sexually. This suggests that the currently quiescent virus retains capacities to reemerge abruptly and spread rapidly in an arena of changing opportunity.